Day 10 of 1415 minutes

Day 10: Climate Risks & Adaptation

UK climate projections, observed changes, and adaptation planning

Learning Objectives

  • Understand what climate change already looks like in the UK — hotter summers, wetter winters, more extreme weather events — using Met Office data.
  • Know the key findings of UK climate projections and the Climate Change Risk Assessment.
  • Appreciate the role of the National Adaptation Programme and why adaptation is a necessary complement to emissions reduction.

Climate Change Is Already Here

For the first nine days of this course, we've focused mainly on mitigation — reducing emissions to limit future warming. But climate change is not a future problem; it's a present reality. The UK is already experiencing its effects, and they are expected to intensify regardless of how quickly emissions are cut, because of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere.

The Met Office's UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) provide the most authoritative picture of what's coming. But first, let's look at what's already happened:

Temperature. The UK's average temperature has risen by approximately 1.2°C since the pre-industrial period. The ten warmest years on record in the UK have all occurred since 2002. July 2022 saw the UK's highest-ever recorded temperature — 40.3°C at Coningsby in Lincolnshire — breaking the previous record by a remarkable 1.5°C.

Rainfall and flooding. The UK is experiencing more intense rainfall events. Winters have become approximately 12% wetter since the mid-20th century, according to the Met Office. Severe flooding — such as the events in Cumbria (2015), across Yorkshire and the Midlands (2019–20), and Storm Babet's devastation across Scotland and eastern England (2023) — has become more frequent and more damaging.

Sea level. Sea levels around the UK have risen by approximately 16–18 cm since 1900. The rate of rise is accelerating, with implications for coastal communities, infrastructure, and flood defences.

In July 2022, the UK recorded 40.3°C for the first time — a temperature that Met Office scientists said would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change.

UKCP18: What the Projections Say

The Met Office's UKCP18 projections model how the UK's climate could change over the rest of this century under different global emissions scenarios. The headline findings are:

Hotter summers, warmer winters. Under a high-emissions scenario, average summer temperatures in southern England could rise by a further 3–5°C by the 2070s. Even under a lower-emissions pathway, significant warming is projected. Heatwaves like 2022 could become commonplace by mid-century.

Wetter winters, drier summers. Winter rainfall is projected to increase by 10–30% by the 2070s, increasing flood risk. Conversely, summers — particularly in southern and eastern England — are projected to become significantly drier, raising the risk of drought, water stress, and wildfire.

More extreme weather. The intensity of heavy rainfall events is expected to increase, even in seasons where average rainfall decreases. This means both flood risk and drought risk can increase simultaneously — a challenging combination for water management.

Sea level rise. Depending on the emissions pathway, UK sea levels could rise by a further 30–90 cm by 2100, with some projections showing over a metre if ice sheet collapse accelerates.

The Climate Change Risk Assessment

Every five years, the UK Government is required by the Climate Change Act to publish a Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA). The third CCRA, published in 2022, identified 61 risks and opportunities, grouped into eight priority areas. Among the highest-priority risks:

  • Risks to human health and wellbeing from high temperatures. The summer 2022 heatwave was linked to an estimated 2,800 excess deaths in England, according to the UK Health Security Agency. Heat-related mortality is projected to increase significantly.
  • Risks to infrastructure from flooding, storms, and coastal erosion. Roads, railways, bridges, power networks, and water treatment works are all vulnerable. Network Rail spent over £1 billion on weather resilience measures in the five years to 2024.
  • Risks to water supply from drought and increased demand. Parts of southern and eastern England are already classified as 'seriously water stressed.' Population growth and climate change will intensify this.
  • Risks to natural ecosystems from changing conditions. Habitats and species are already shifting northward and uphill. Some UK species — such as mountain-dwelling birds like the dotterel — face significant range loss.
  • Risks to food production. UK agriculture is vulnerable to both flooding and drought, as well as to climate-related disruptions in international food supply chains.

The third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (2022) identified 61 risks and opportunities, with heat-related mortality, infrastructure flooding, and water supply among the most urgent.

The National Adaptation Programme

The UK Government's response to these risks is the National Adaptation Programme (NAP), also required by the Climate Change Act. The third NAP was published in 2023 and sets out actions across government departments to build resilience to climate change.

Key areas include strengthening flood defences (the government committed £5.2 billion to flood and coastal defences in England for the period 2021–2027), investing in water efficiency and supply infrastructure, updating building regulations to address overheating, and developing early warning systems for extreme weather. The Met Office's National Severe Weather Warning Service and the Environment Agency's flood warning systems are critical infrastructure.

However, the CCC's assessment of adaptation progress has been consistently critical. In its 2023 report, the CCC concluded that progress was insufficient in virtually every area, with a significant gap between the scale of climate risk and the pace of action to address it. The CCC noted that there is no systematic assessment of what the UK's critical infrastructure can withstand, and that adaptation planning is often treated as an afterthought rather than a core part of national resilience.

Natural Flood Management

One area where adaptation and nature-based solutions intersect is natural flood management (NFM). NFM techniques — such as planting trees in catchment areas, restoring floodplain wetlands, installing leaky dams in streams, and reconnecting rivers with their floodplains — slow the flow of water through the landscape, reducing flood peaks downstream.

The approach has been championed by organisations like the Environment Agency and the Woodland Trust, and there are successful demonstration projects across the UK — including the Pickering Beck project in North Yorkshire, which significantly reduced flooding in the town of Pickering through upstream tree planting and bund construction. NFM is typically cheaper than hard engineering solutions and delivers co-benefits for biodiversity, water quality, and carbon sequestration (connecting back to yesterday's discussion of nature-based solutions).

However, NFM has limitations. It works best at the catchment scale and for moderate flooding events. It cannot replace hard flood defences in urban areas or for extreme events. The most effective approach combines both: engineered defences where they're needed, complemented by natural flood management upstream.

Key Takeaway

Climate change is already making the UK hotter, wetter in winter, and more prone to extreme weather — and the pace of adaptation planning is falling well short of the scale of risk, particularly for infrastructure, health, and water supply.

Quick-Fire Recap

  • UK average temperature has risen approximately 1.2°C since the pre-industrial era; the record of 40.3°C was set in July 2022.
  • UKCP18 projects hotter summers, wetter winters, more intense rainfall, and significant sea level rise.
  • The 2022 heatwave was linked to an estimated 2,800 excess deaths in England.
  • The third CCRA (2022) identified 61 climate risks, with heat, flooding, and water supply among the most urgent.
  • The CCC has assessed adaptation progress as insufficient in virtually every area.

Reflection Prompt

Has your local area been affected by flooding, heatwaves, or other extreme weather in recent years? How prepared do you think your community is for these events to become more frequent?

Sources & Further Reading

  1. Met Office, "UKCP18 Climate Projections", Met Office, 2018. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp
  2. Met Office, "State of the UK Climate 2023", Met Office, 2024. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/about/state-of-climate
  3. UK Government, "UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022", DEFRA, January 2022. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-climate-change-risk-assessment-2022
  4. UK Government, "Third National Adaptation Programme 2023", DEFRA, July 2023. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/third-national-adaptation-programme-nap3
  5. UK Health Security Agency, "Heat-related Mortality in England, Summer 2022", UKHSA, 2022.
  6. Climate Change Committee, "Progress in Adapting to Climate Change: 2023 Report to Parliament", CCC, 2023. https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/progress-in-adapting-to-climate-change-2023-report-to-parliament/
  7. Environment Agency, "Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Strategy", EA, 2020. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-flood-and-coastal-erosion-risk-management-strategy-for-england--2
  8. Woodland Trust, "Natural Flood Management", Woodland Trust, 2024. https://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/

Through a Product Designer's Lens

Climate adaptation is a design challenge hiding in plain sight. Consider overheating in buildings — as heatwaves become more frequent, the design of homes, offices, schools, and hospitals becomes a health issue. Smart building management systems that automatically adjust shading, ventilation, and cooling based on real-time temperature and occupancy data are a growing product category. But there's also a simpler design opportunity: better communication. During the July 2022 heatwave, many people didn't understand the health risk. Products that deliver personalised, location-specific heat health alerts — calibrated to individual vulnerability (age, health conditions) — could save lives.

From an information design and data visualisation perspective, flood risk mapping is a critical tool that directly affects homebuying decisions, insurance pricing, and planning approvals. The Environment Agency's Flood Map for Planning is functional but not user-friendly. A well-designed product that overlays flood risk, sea level rise projections, and climate scenarios onto an intuitive map interface — and helps users understand what these risks mean for a specific property over a 25-year mortgage — would serve millions of people making one of the biggest financial decisions of their lives.

The ethical design dimension is significant too. Climate risks disproportionately affect lower-income communities, who are more likely to live in flood-prone areas, in poorly insulated homes that overheat, and with less capacity to adapt. Any adaptation product must consider who is most vulnerable and whether it's accessible to them, not just to affluent early adopters.

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